Skepticism is overrated


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The Dour and Sour Yes, that’s right. Those of us bred in academia, we are a bunch of pessimists. Or, at least industry people perceive us so, and you better get used to a new norm if not determined to go extinct. Get it? No? Ok, here’s an example. Your company just completed a clinical trial. Data shows that drug treatment groups seem to be slightly better off than a placebo arm, but not in a statistically significant way. Please describe the result to your Wall Street investors. You are a smart PhD who ingrained scientific rigor into your DNA, so you play like this. “With p-value greater than 0.05, there are more than 1 in 20 chances that patient improvement in treatment arms are consequence of mere random drift, therefore ”. “You lost me”, your investment banker says, “So, is this a failure or success?” You poor graduate student-turned-self-hating-industry-pseudo-scientist responds “eh, sir, according to this statistical analysis”. “Failure or success!?”, goes the banker again. You sigh, and say “I suppose it is a failure because statistically those two groups are identical, blah blah blah…” Beep beep beep! FAILURE!!! You have just earned a big bold headline on newswires, had company stock tanking, mom and pop investors panicking, and guess what? You might no longer need to hate your new job. See, there is no “failure” in this world. There is a “possibility”. Capisce? You think it’s shady? Over-reaching? Hey, what do you know? You are just another academic egghead poking holes around. See, you lack the power of “positive” thinking. This trial will work next time. Or you will make it work. Now, it should’ve gone like this; “This is a smashing SUCCESS! There, you see some statistical anomaly, but it’s a SUCCESS anyway!!” Come loud cheers and confetti.